First Base - 2010 Preview

The Marina Trench, The Federal Deficit. The Grand Canyon. Paris Hilton’s … bank account. Like all of these examples, first base is quite deep this year. While you will be tempted to fill a shallow position and put off 1B until the next round, don’t look past some of the upper tier players available in Rounds 1 and 2.

First Tier

Albert Pujols – Cardinals.

Pujols is in a league of his own, except with him you don’t have to worry about Rosie O’Donnell. Zing!

In my humble opinion, Pujols and H-Ram are your only two viable options for the #1 pick. In my mock drafts, I have alternated taking St. Albert and Hanley at the #1 spot, but in the end, my teams appear stronger with Pujols.

Second Tier

Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeria, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera

These guys are going later the first and early in the second, depending on the number of teams. I was big on Fielder (no pun intended) last season, and he rebounded nicely last year with .299/46/141. I am not sure about 141 RBIs again, but he should help you with R, HR and RBIs.

Last season, Teixeira started slow (.200/3/10) and continued to have a difficult last name to spell. However, he finished strong (.292/39/122), and most importantly, did not let the NY media mess with his head. I do not anticipate a decline.

I was worried about Ryan Howard last season, especially with the absence of Pat Burrell, but he put up his usual numbers (.279/45/141). He still strikes out way too much (186 Ks), but it should not be an issue as long as your league does not penalize Ks.

Miguel Cabrera finished the year with a bang and then spent the off-season drying out in rehab. It is hard to believe that Cabrera is only 27 years old. Don’t be scared off by the way his season ended. If you have a late first round pick, he is a great pick up.

The rest of my Top Ten

Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Adam Dunn, Joey Votto

Dunn is a poor man’s Ryan Howard. A mere two HRs ended Dunn’s streak of 40 or more HRs lasting from 2004. Votto’s post-All Star line was .300/11/42 with a .399 OBP. Expect a big year from him.

But what about …

Kendry Morales - LA Angels - Votto just edged out Morales for my 10^th spot. He still has the risk of taking sophomore slump, but his strong 2^nd half (.330/19/59) indicates a solid 2010.

Mark Reynolds – D’backs – Reynolds had an incredible season .260/44/102 with 24 SBs while breaking his own dubious MLB record with 223 Ks. Reynolds makes Rob Deer look like Tony Gwynn, except that Deer did not rock a Jheri curl until 1998. With the risk of a decline, I would choose a solid vet at 1B and consider Reynolds at 3B, where talent is thin this year.

Victor Martinez and Pablo Sandoval – While Martinez should have a great year, he is better utilized at catcher. Accordingly, I don’t like Sandoval as much as a 1B as I do at 3B. Also, don’t draft Sandoval with the hope that we will return to catcher, as the Giant’s signing of Bengie Molina put an end to that possibility.

Achievers/Bums - 7/21/08

ACHIEVERS

Randy Johnson – SP – Arizona Diamondbacks – Win, 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K's – With only four K's, it was not Vintage Unit, but it was pretty damn good. Johnson outdueled a filthy Rich Harden to get the win against the Cubs. It appears that Harden is going to have to throw a perfect game to get a W with the Cubs, by the way.

Miguel Cabrera – 1B/3B – Detroit Tigers – 5/6, 6 RBI, 2 R – These were the video game numbers I was expecting from the Tigers going into the season. There were a lot of Tigers with a chance to named "Achiever" today, but six RBI's gets you on the list every time. Miguel could be the beast of the second half.

The Rays – Is it too late to recant my second-half bums predictions? It's only been a few games, but so far Kazmir, Longoria and the Rays (that's right just Rays, they've earned it) are starting to convert me. Longoria was 2/5 with a HR and 2 RBI and Kazmir got the win after pitching seven innings of two-hit ball with nine K's.

BUMS

Francisco Cordero – RP – Loss, .2 IP, BS, 1 H, 3 BB, 3 ER – Cordero had another brutal outing last night and then made excuses. Trevor Hoffman and Brad Lidge don't make excuses, and neither should you, you piece of crap. You got rocked. Period.

Jose Valverde – RP – Loss, .1 IP, BS, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 ER – Speaking of overrated, highly paid, piece-of-crap, NL Central closers, Jose Valverde went and made Cordero's blown save look a little less horrible.

Royals Pitchers – If I had to pick just one, I guess it would be Jimmy Gobble, who gave up ten earned, but the whole pitching staff should be ashamed after giving up 19 to the Tigers. That's embarrasing.

Top Five Projected Second Half Achievers - Donny Edition

As I prepare to watch the annual Home Run Derby tonight, I can only hope that Chris Berman will be providing the "back, back, back, back...oh juuust missed..." commentary again this year. Some people hate Berman, but I kind of enjoy him in a sick way. On some level he has to know that he comes off as an egotistical blowhard, but I don't think he cares. According to his bio at Brooks International, he has appeared onstage with Huey Lewis and the News "over half a dozen times" (why not just say seven?) as well as twice with Eddie Money. Who amongst us can make that claim? None of us? That's what I thought. Anyway, here are guys I think will blow up in the second half. Trade for them if you can. Pray for them to get injured if you can't.

Mark Teixeira - 1B - Atlanta Braves - Tex is a classic second-half monster. In 2007 he hit 18 of his 30 home runs and 64 of his 105 RBI in the second half. And that's nothing compared to 2006 when he hit a whopping 29 home runs in the second half. He may end up a Yankee or a Red Sock, which may not improve his numbers as much as you might think, as he has a nice little spot hitting after Chipper and before McCann, but it certainly can't hurt to be in a lineup with A-Rod or Man-Ram/Large Father. The downside of trying to trade for Teixeira is that it's pretty much common knowledge that he's a second-half stud. You'll probably have a tough time acquiring him, but if you're already an owner, hang on for a huge rest of the season for Tex.

Grady Sizemore - OF - Cleveland Indians - Considering the fact that Grady Sizemore has already nearly reached his career-highs in HR's and SB, this actually a pretty bold prediction, but I think this is his big breakout year. He has not been a huge second-half guy in the past, but he is running wild this year, and I think the power numbers are legit. Last week I predicted 40/40 for Grady and I'm sticking to it. And, yes, I am a card-carrying member of Grady's Ladies.

Miguel Cabrera - 3B/1B - Detroit Tigers - Awww, poor you. You used your first draft pick on Miguel Cabrera and he only gave you a .284 BA, 16 HR, 57 RBI & 43 R in the first half (AKA, nearly the identical numbers he had last year in the second half). Not to fear, Miggy is still in a potent offense that is starting to pull it together and he will have a big second half. Worst-case scenario, he matches his first-half numbers and ends up with 32/114/86, but I would project closer to 38/125/100 with a BA around .300. It's worth a try to make an offer on him, especially in a keeper league.


Javier Vazquez - SP - Chicago White Sox - Javier has been striking guys out in near obscurity for years now. Starting your career in Montreal tends to have that effect (see also: Cabrera, Orlando). There was the unfortunate stint in pinstripes in 2004, but since then he's been pretty solid. He's a good pitcher who can catch fire and become your fantasy ace at any moment if you'll just let him. Last year he was 9-3 in the second half with a K/BB ratio of 105/24. He's on a contending team this year and he will continue to get the K's. I think he'll rack up the wins also and I'm buying.

A.J. Burnett - SP - Toronto Blue Jays - I actually picked the Blue Jays to win the AL East this year. Yeah, I was the guy. The main reason was I loved the rotation of Halladay, Burnett and McGowan. Well, Halladay has been good, but the other two have been pretty brutal. But Burnett is a guy who really helped me down the stretch last year, and I had him on this list even before his performance last night against the Yankees. I can see him getting traded to a team like the Cardinals, which would be awesome for him. He's got all of the tools, and if he stays healthy I can see a huge second half for A.J. I think there is enough reward potential there to take the risk in trading for him if you need a SP for the second half.

Others to watch:

Nick Markakis - OF - Baltimore Orioles, Kevin Youkilis - 1B/3B - Boston Red Sox, Sean Gallagher - SP - Oakland A's, Matt Holliday - OF - Colorado Rockies

COMING SOON - Top Five Projected Second Half Bums