First TierAlbert Pujols - Cardinals - I was one of those guys last year who let Pujols slide because of the boo-boo with his elbow. Mistake. As usual, Pujols was the standard by which all others are judged - .357/37/116 with a 1oo R for icing. While I would still take H-Ram and A-Roid over him due to the depth at 1B, you can't go wrong with A-Puj.
Miguel Cabrera - Tigers - I briefly considered placing Miguel at #1 due to his 1B/3B eligibility in Yahoo leagues, but I defer to the power of St. Albert. Cabrera was more tortoise than hare last season, slowly but surely hitting .292/37/127, including .302/21/70 in the second half. Cabrera's Home/Away numbers were nearly identical last season. As most players put up better numbers at home, I would suggest that Cabrera's numbers get better this season as he continues to get comfortable in his Motown surroundings. If you grab Cabrera, try to pick up another 1B later in the draft and move Cabrera to 3B.
Mark Teixeira - Yankees - Based on statistics only, Texeira should do fine with Yankees. He is in the prime of his career, will be in a lineup with A-Rod, and will play in a ballpark with the same dimensions as old Yankee stadium. The X Factor will be how Teixeira deals with the New York media and the pressure that comes with it. Fortunately for Tex, A-Rod will be taking the brunt of the media's gaze. Look for Texeira to put up the same figures, but with 1B being so deep, don't look past a higher level player (Reyes, Wright, A-Rod, Cabrera, Sizemore) if they drop down to you.
Second Tier
Prince Fielder - Brewers - Fielder's 2008 numbers (.276/34/102) can only be considered underwhelming when compared to his 2007 figures (.288/50/119). As Fielder will only 24 when Opening Day arrives, don't focus on Fielder's 2007 figures when making your choice. Fielder has the ability to hit 50 HRs, a feat which few post-roid players can claim. I am placing him above the others due to his tremendous upside and his large backside.
Ryan Howard - Phillies - How do you turn down a guy who hits 48 HRs with an incredible 146 RBIs? You focus on his crap batting average (.251), backed up his inability to take a walk (.330 OBP) and not to mention the giant hole in his swing (199 Ks). Howard's weaknesses will be exasperated by Pat Burrell's absence in the lineup. I would pass on Howard for a more stable player and pick up Adam Dunn (ADP - 63) three rounds later.
Justin Morneau - Twins - Morneau brings many things to the table that I want to see in a high draft pick - left-handed, plays in AL, young, healthy (played 163 games in 2008), has a name that rhymes with Bordeaux (just kidding - I did not go to college here). I initally had Morneau lower than Berkman based on his 2008 HRs (23); however, I believe that this decline is a fluke (34, 31 HRs in the two previous seasons). Morneau's understated style and Midwest small market stature might allow him to slip to the high 3rd round pick. Don't overpay for him, but I would not look past him, either.
Lance Berkman - Astros - The Big Puma's numbers are not as gaudy as Pujols, but he makes up for his lack of flair with his consistency. You know that Berkman is going to get around .300/30/100+ per season in addition to having that Matthew Fox half-beard thing. I would factor in the half-beard more than his aberration of 18 SBs from last season. On the downside, Berkman's numbers have declined in correlation with his increasing age. My big worry would be his lack of power in the 2nd half (22 HRs - 1st half; seven HRs- 2nd half). However, I would chalk that difference up to the Bell Curve rather than an issue with Berkman. I would pick Fielder ahead of Berkman due to Fielder's potential to hit 50 HRs. At worst, Berkman provides you the consistency you want out of a early round pick.
Other guys
Adrian Gonzalez - Padres - I don't care if he hit 36 HRs last year. AG plays his home games in a black hole, resulting in an inverted Home/Away breakdown (.247/14/49 - Home; .308/22/70 - Away).
Kevin Youkilis - Red Sox - I think that Youk played over his head last year, but that does not mean I believe he will be a bad pick-up this season. However, I would rather have Youkilis as my 3B than a 1B.
Garrett Atkins - Rockies - Atkins' 1B/3B eligibility plus Coors Field advantage gives him extra value. Like Youkilis, I would rather see him at 3B. Try to grab him in the 6th or 7th round as your 3B.
Adam Dunn - Similiar numbers to Howard, but without the 1st/2nd round price. Ignore the batting average and grab him later for R, HR and RBIs.
On the Rise
Joey Votto - Reds - Joey V will give you similar numbers to Derrick Lee without the higher round premium. Keep an eye on him as you get close to pick #100.
Conor Jackson - D'Backs - I am a sucker for guys who can get on-base (.300 avg, .376 OBP) and have names that sound like characters from a Chuck Norris movie. If you take risks on 3B and OFs in early rounds, keep Jackson in mind as a sleeper for 1B.
On the Decline
Derrick Lee - Cubs - Since hitting 46 HRs in 2005, Lee has only hit 50 in the three following seasons. Lee's advancing years and the Cubs inability to provide their hitters LH protection provides me additional worry. I would rather take another CI and grab Joey Votto than take Lee.
Aubrey Huff - Orioles - While he brings 1B/3B eligibility, Huff also plays for the Orioles. I expect that realization to catch up with him in 2009.







