First Base - 2010 Preview

The Marina Trench, The Federal Deficit. The Grand Canyon. Paris Hilton’s … bank account. Like all of these examples, first base is quite deep this year. While you will be tempted to fill a shallow position and put off 1B until the next round, don’t look past some of the upper tier players available in Rounds 1 and 2.

First Tier

Albert Pujols – Cardinals.

Pujols is in a league of his own, except with him you don’t have to worry about Rosie O’Donnell. Zing!

In my humble opinion, Pujols and H-Ram are your only two viable options for the #1 pick. In my mock drafts, I have alternated taking St. Albert and Hanley at the #1 spot, but in the end, my teams appear stronger with Pujols.

Second Tier

Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeria, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera

These guys are going later the first and early in the second, depending on the number of teams. I was big on Fielder (no pun intended) last season, and he rebounded nicely last year with .299/46/141. I am not sure about 141 RBIs again, but he should help you with R, HR and RBIs.

Last season, Teixeira started slow (.200/3/10) and continued to have a difficult last name to spell. However, he finished strong (.292/39/122), and most importantly, did not let the NY media mess with his head. I do not anticipate a decline.

I was worried about Ryan Howard last season, especially with the absence of Pat Burrell, but he put up his usual numbers (.279/45/141). He still strikes out way too much (186 Ks), but it should not be an issue as long as your league does not penalize Ks.

Miguel Cabrera finished the year with a bang and then spent the off-season drying out in rehab. It is hard to believe that Cabrera is only 27 years old. Don’t be scared off by the way his season ended. If you have a late first round pick, he is a great pick up.

The rest of my Top Ten

Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Adam Dunn, Joey Votto

Dunn is a poor man’s Ryan Howard. A mere two HRs ended Dunn’s streak of 40 or more HRs lasting from 2004. Votto’s post-All Star line was .300/11/42 with a .399 OBP. Expect a big year from him.

But what about …

Kendry Morales - LA Angels - Votto just edged out Morales for my 10^th spot. He still has the risk of taking sophomore slump, but his strong 2^nd half (.330/19/59) indicates a solid 2010.

Mark Reynolds – D’backs – Reynolds had an incredible season .260/44/102 with 24 SBs while breaking his own dubious MLB record with 223 Ks. Reynolds makes Rob Deer look like Tony Gwynn, except that Deer did not rock a Jheri curl until 1998. With the risk of a decline, I would choose a solid vet at 1B and consider Reynolds at 3B, where talent is thin this year.

Victor Martinez and Pablo Sandoval – While Martinez should have a great year, he is better utilized at catcher. Accordingly, I don’t like Sandoval as much as a 1B as I do at 3B. Also, don’t draft Sandoval with the hope that we will return to catcher, as the Giant’s signing of Bengie Molina put an end to that possibility.

Achievers/Bums - 8/19 - 8/21/08

ACHIEVERS
Grady Sizemore - OF - Cleveland Indians - 4/5, HR, 3b, 7 RBI, SB (Thursday) - Sizemore's power has slowed just a bit in the second half, but he's still got a shot at 40/40, and I think he'll get it. Sizemore is getting better every year, and is an obvious keeper in all formats. Also, he's sexy.

Rich Harden - SP - Chicago Cubs - (Tuesday) Win, 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 10 K - I'm always looking for a reason to talk about Rich Harden, and on Tuesday he definitely gave an Achiever-worthy performance, so I get my chance. Since the Cubs acquired Harden in July, he has gone 3-1 with an ERA of 1.50, a WHIP of .95 and a redonkulous 59 K's in 42 IP. In short, he's made Sandy Koufax look like Jose Lima. If you held on to him through the injuries, you are now being rewarded. Piniella and the Cubs are handling him just right by giving him extra days of rest and keeping his pitch-count down.

Raul Ibanez - OF - Seattle Mariners - 7 HR, 27 RBI in the last month - I gave Ibanez love in my first edition of "This Ain't 'Nam" back on July 10th, and you didn't listen. Brandt has been giving Ibanez crazy props for weeks, but you still haven't picked him up. Now it's too late. You're still starting Jay Bruce, and Ibanez is still raking. More Ibanez updates will be forthcoming as he continues to mash. Stay tuned.

A.J. Burnett - SP - Toronto Blue Jays - (Tuesday) Win, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 13 K - This is what Burnett can do when healthy. I thought he'd have a good second half, and so far, so good. His stats after the all-star break are: 6-1, 3.22 ERA, 52 K in 42 IP.

BUMS

Ryan Howard - 1B - Philadelphia Phillies - Howard is going to shatter his record of 199 strikeouts in a season this year, as he's on pace for 213. He's also 3 for his last 35 with a whiff-tastic 18 strikeouts in that span. But at least he hits homers, right? Not lately. He's only got 5 since the break. If your league penalizes for K's, then bench him immediately. If not, you can probably keep him in there and hope for a power surge. Look and see if Delgado is still available, as it appears he may be getting ready to go on a hot streak.

Jimmy Rollins - SS - Philadelphia Phillies - So here's what not to do in Philly: (a) Call out the fans, (b) then go 3 for 33 immediately after that. J-Roll is losing fans almost as quickly as he's losing his fantasy value. The fact that he was basically correct in his statements about Philly fans being front-runners is completely irrelevant.

Jake Peavy - SP - San Diego Padres - Loss, 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 2 K (Wednesday) - Peavy has showed this year why I don't like taking pitchers in the first few rounds of the draft. Peavy was a second-round pick in most leagues this year (Yahoo! ADP 18.2), but he has not lived up to his past greatness. The most concerning thing to me about Peavy is that his strikeouts are down from the last few years. His K/9 is below 9 for the first time since 2003. Not that at a K/9 of 8.7 is bad by any stretch, but with Peavy, you knew wins were going to be hard to come by with the offense he has behind him, so you are counting on the K's. The fact that he barely ranks in the top 25 in that category is a disappointment for those that drafted him so early this year.

Achivers/Bums - 7/11/08

ACHIEVERS

Roy Halladay – SP – Toronto Blue Jays – Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K’s – Halladay was in vintage form as he shut out the hapless Yankees last night. Not only is the Good Doctor leading the majors in complete games as usual, he's striking guys out again. Does a K/BB ratio of 121/21 do anything for ya?

Cliff Lee – SP – Cleveland Indians – Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K’s – Uncle Cliffy was nifty against the Satan Rays.

Ryan Howard – 1b – Philadelphia Phillies – 2/5, 1 HR 1 RBI, 2 R – I don't like Ryan Howard because he strikes out so much, but you can't argue with his recent production. His last week looks like this: .393 BA, 6 HR, 11 RBI, 7 R.

BUMS

Alex Rodriguez – 3b– New York Yankees – 1/4, K – Lately A-Rod looks like a virgin at the plate. Right now he is borderline awful, and I may have to give him a holiday from my starting lineup. Hopefully he will get back into the groove again soon and justify my love. Uhh, nobody's perfect? OK, I'm done.

Gavin Floyd – SP – Chicago White Sox – Loss, 2.2 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 7 BB, 2 K's – OK, enough talking about Floyd being snubbed for the All-Star team.

Carl Crawford – OF – Tampa Bay Lucifer Rays – 0/4, 2 K's, E – All of the sudden Carl Crawford has turned into Corey Patterson.

10 First Half Surprise Achievers (Pitchers)

"...and proud we are of all of them."

Edinson Volquez – SP – Cincinnati Reds – 11 W, 2.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 116 K – It's really amazing that this kid has been so good that most Reds fans don't really miss Josh Hamilton. Having said that, he's going to hit a cold streak so if you can get proven, top-tier talent in return, you should probably consider doing the deal. I traded Volquez and Carlos Guillen for A-Rod in a keeper league and have had private moments of wailing and gnashing of teeth, but that's the type of player you'd have to get if you move Voltron.

Cliff Lee – SP – Cleveland Indians – 11 W, 2.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 99 K – Cliff Lee has been a revelation this year. His stuff looks fantastic, and from a roto standpoint, he's had one of those first halves that can carry an entire fantasy pitching staff in ERA and WHIP. My instinct says there is no way he can have a similar second half, but I'd probably hold on to him and ride him out as long as possible.

Ervin Santana – SP – Los Angeles Angels – 10 W, 3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 112 K– This guy was written off by everyone as a home spot starter, and understandably so, but he seems to have gotten things straightened out after a stint in triple-A last year. He's always had the stuff, but it seems he's finally put it all together.

Joe Saunders – SP – Los Angeles Angels – 12 W, 3.07 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 63 K – The guy who was fighting out E. Santana for the 5th starter job in spring training leads the majors in W's. The bad news: only 58 K's does not portend good things for the 2nd half.

Ryan Dempster – SP – Chicago Cubs – 10 W, 3.13 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 98 K – Moving from reliever to starter is hard. Just ask Danny Graves. Or Joba Chamberlain for that matter. But Dempster is making his organization look brilliant for making the move.

George Sherrill – RP – Baltimore Orioles – 2 W, 27 SV, 3.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 27 K – At least Bedard was worth it, eh Mariners?

Joakim Soria – RP – Kansas City Royals – 1 W, 23 SV, 1.58 ERA, .75 WHIP, 44 K – In addition to the 23 saves, he gives you a great ERA and wonderful WHIP with solid strikeouts. And as a bonus you don't need antacid when watching him close out games. He's the anti-Todd Jones.

Brad Lidge – RP – Philadelphia Phillies – 2 W, 19 SV, .97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 49 K – Of course the one year I don't gamble by drafting him as my first closer he turns into Goose Gossage. Thanks for nothing, a-hole.

Justin Duchscherer – SP – Oakland Athletics – 10 W, 1.78 ERA, .86 WHIP, 63 K – See: Dempster, Ryan. But add more awesomeness.

Aaron Cook – SP – Colorado Rockies – 11 W, 3.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 64 K – Gentleman: I give you...an ownable Rockies pitcher. Shhhh! Don't tap on the glass, you'll spook him.