Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Achievers/Bums - 8/06/08

ACHIEVERS

Vladimir Guerrero - OF - Los Angeles Angels - 2/3, HR, 4 RBI, BB - Vlad has been doing extra impaling since the "Tex Factor" arrived in Anaheim. He started slow this year and his power numbers are down a tad, but I think he'll end up with numbers close to his career averages, which we all know are awesome.

Troy Percival - RP - Tampa Bay Rays - Win, .2 IP - I usually don't include closers in the "Achievers" section, but I think Percival deserves a nod for the job he has done for the Rays this year. He's saved 24 out of 27 so far, and although he spent a couple weeks on the DL, you can't deny the value he's provided for where he was drafted (Yahoo ADP was 183.5).

Shaun Marcum - SP - Toronto Blue Jays - Win, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K's - After giving up 16 earned runs in his last three starts, Shaun Marcum found his control and pitched a gem against the A's. Marcum is not a sell-high candidate as he has the potential to be an excellent starter long-term. The buzz around Marcum has died down a little bit, so it might be the perfect time to try to snag him. (Of course if the jackass in your league who owns him just went on a cruise and has no internet access until after the trade deadline, your out of luck).

BUMS

David Wright
- 3B - New York Mets - 2/5, RBI, SB, E - The Mets have lost seven of their last ten, and there is a lot of blame to go around: Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Pedro Martinez, the bullpen - all very, very bad lately. But I mainly blame David Wright, who despite having a couple of hits and a SB last night, has been brutal lately. Over the last week he's hitting .150 with 2 RBI, 2 R and 1 SB. That's what I get for giving him ridiculous props a couple of weeks ago.

Scott Kazmir - SP - Tampa Bay Rays - ND, 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 4 K's - Scott Kazmir is a tease. He can look like Johan Santana (the Twins version) one start and Barry Zito (the Giants version) in the next. He led the AL in strikeouts last year, and early on, it looked like the numbers would be even better in 2008. But in his last ten starts he has only gone six innings twice. He's going through a rough patch, but I wouldn't sell. His strikeouts make him so valuable and I think he'll get it together; you just have to be willing to stomach the ups and downs and realize he is going to mix in the dominating performances with what he did last night.

Derek Lowe - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers - Loss, 3.1 IP, 8 ER, 13 H, 2 BB, 2 K's - Holy crap, I almost started him.

2 comments:

Ross said...

The Vlad graphic here got me thinking: where you consider drafting Vlad next year in a standard 5 x 5 roto? I took him in my 8 x 8 roto league this year with pick number 23. Predraft I actually had him projected as a top 10 player in that league. Simply put he has not performed as a top 10 or top 30 player this year. His steals are certainly a thing of the past, his power seems to be waning, and while his batting average has been okay since June he started this year in a slump. This lack of production led fellow fantasy baseball blogger, The Angry Bench Coach to post an article entitled, "Vlad had destroyed your fantasy team".

All that said I still would probably take him in the 4th round next year in a 10 or 12 team mixed league. He has produced decent numbers this year and his past 5 years are so impressive I don't think it is ridiculous to think that next year (especially with Tex in that lineup) he ends up with better numbers than this year. Simply put: even during this down year he is still a proven commodity with low risk. For the record, I owned Vlad in 2004 when he was unreal and perhaps simply owning him that season and winning that league has led me to overvalue him for the rest of his career.

ANYWAY, I am curious to see where you guys project him next year (stats and draft wise). For the sake of round numbers I will put him at .300 avg, 100 runs, 100 rbis, 30 hrs which certainly makes him a nice pick in the 4th Round.

Donny said...

Yeah, I think that Vlad is an odd case. Prior to this year he had a great brand name, and I think guys were maybe taking him a little too high in drafts. You took him number 23 and his Yahoo ADP was 20.7. I wouldn't have taken him that high based on the decline in stolen bases, but I can understand why people did, based on the fact that he has such a great track record and people expect great numbers every year.

I think that this year, because he started so slowly, his brand name has taken a hit. But a closer look at the stats shows that this his power numbers (20 HR, 64 RBI) aren't that far off from sluggers such as Matt Holliday (22 HR, 69 RBI) and Lance Berkman (22 HR, 77 RBI).

This may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for next year if owners shy away from him in the draft. He could actually be a bargain in the 4th round. I would project slightly less power next year and a higher average. Something like .315, 27 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R, 5 SB.

Contributing Achievers